Le livre « HELP! Je ne comprends rien à l’économie » écrit par Damien Saison suit la vie d’un citoyen ordinaire et illustre avec simplicité les complexités de l’économie moderne.
Fiche de lecture
- D’où vient la crise ?
- Prédire l’économie
- La bourse et les marchés
- Les banques centrales
- La crise japonaise
- Pourquoi les États sont endettés ?
- Austérité et relance
- La crise grecque
D’où vient la crise ?
Des millions de crédits sur hypothèque ont été faits à des clients qui n’étaient pas sûrs de pouvoir rembourser (subprimes). En 2007, beaucoup d’Américains ne peuvent plus payer leurs crédits immobiliers. Les banques essaient de revendre leurs maisons mais le marché de l’immobilier s’effondre.
De grandes banques font faillite et précipitent la chute du système financier et bancaire.
Les entreprises du monde entier ne trouvent plus d’argent pour se développer et doivent massivement licencier.
Entre les licenciements, les épargnants et les investisseurs ruinés, la consommation ralentit. Un cercle vicieux se met en place : baisse de la consommation à baisse des recettes pour les entreprises à moins de travail pour les travailleurs à baisse de la consommation.
Les trois cycles (Kondratiev, Juglar et Kitchin) reportés sur la même ligne temporelle.
Prédire l’économie
Les cycles mineurs de Kitchin apparaissent tous les quarante mois. Ils sont dus à un effet de « stockage-déstockage». Ce sont de très petites crises dans lesquelles les entreprises manquent facilement de stocks.
Les cycles de Juglar apparaissent tous les 6 ou 10 ans et sont partagés en quatre phases distinctes :
- Expansion
- Crise
- Dépression
- Reprise
Les cycles de Kondratiev apparaissent tous les 52 ans, ils sont basés sur l’inflation et la déflation dues à d’importants investissements dans de nouvelles « ères » telles que le chemin de fer dont la valeur augmentait puis régressait.
Tous ces cycles, bien qu’imprécis, peuvent être assemblés sur un même modèle.
La bourse et les marchés
La Bourse est un grand marché destiné à faciliter le financement à travers le monde pour les investisseurs et les entreprises. Elle est l’un des symboles de la mondialisation.
- Une action : c’est une part d’entreprise vendue ou achetée. Sa valeur dépend du bénéfice généré par l’entreprise et des prévisions à venir.
- Une obligation : c’est un prêt fait à une entreprise ou une institution qui vous remboursera tant que vous aurez votre coupon d’obligation. Vous pouvez revendre ce coupon, l’entreprise continuera de rembourser le détenteur du coupon.
Le triple A (AAA) est une note attribuée attestant la probabilité que l’émetteur rembourse son prêt.
Le CAC 40 est la représentation des quarante plus fortes capitalisations boursières françaises.
La Bourse est un accélérateur d’échanges et une importante concentration d’investisseurs. Elle peut très bien créer de gigantesques bulles spéculatives lorsque tous les investisseurs se ruent vers le même but ou créer la panique lorsque tous les investisseurs se retirent et vendent leurs actions à perte.
Les banques centrales
Une déflation peut être utile pour l’économie uniquement à court terme car elle finit par entraîner une spirale déflationniste dont il est très difficile de sortir. Elle apparaît lorsque les ménages commencent à économiser leur argent pour le dépenser lorsque les prix seront « encore plus bas ». Cela entraîne une baisse de production et rend cette déflation non rentable pour les entreprises.
La crise japonaise
Le Japon était un pays puissant dans les années 80/90. Suite aux accords du Plaza (dépréciation du cours du dollar par rapport à ceux du yen et du mark), les exportations chutèrent et le Japon dut changer sa politique monétaire.
La banque centrale japonaise passa le taux directeur (taux d’intérêt au jour le jour fixés par la banque centrale) de 5% à 2,5 %, ce qui eut pour effet de relancer la consommation, mais aussi de créer des bulles spéculatives dangereuses.
Suite à l’explosion de ces bulles, le Japon entra dans une crise déflationniste qui se résorbe petit à petit depuis 2004, notamment grâce à l’assouplissement quantitatif (banque centrale qui rachete massivement des titres de dettes).
La BCE a elle aussi décidé de mener une politique d’assouplissement quantitatif en rachetant beaucoup d’obligations d’États en peu de temps. Elle cherche à redynamiser l’économie (plus d’argent en banque = plus de consommation), que l’Europe reste compétitive sur l’exportation (plus d’argent en circulation = euro moins fort) et à inciter les investisseurs à mettre de l’argent dans l’économie réelle.
Principales sources de revenus de l’État : les taxes, les impôts et les produits/services de l’État (entreprises publiques).
Pourquoi les États sont endettés ?
L’État gère le bon fonctionnement du pays. Il a besoin de recettes qu’il génère via les taxes et impôts directs ou indirects.
L’État emprunte énormément et est noté par des agences de notation. Ces agences notent les États en fonction de leur dette, de leur déficit et des prévisions économiques. Ces notes influencent beaucoup les créanciers et donc les taux de prêt faits à l’État.
Une crise augmente le déficit d’un État car celui-ci doit dépenser plus en aides pour entreprises et particuliers. Il gagne moins car la demande diminue, les entreprises produisent moins et le salaire moyen s’érode avec les gels de salaires et l’augmentation du chômage.
Schéma d’une relance interventionniste.
Austérité et relance
Austérité :
L’État cherche à gagner plus d’argent (taxes et impôts). Les dépenses sont diminuées au maximum afin de diminuer le déficit budgétaire. Cette méthode peut créer des tensions sociales puisque les entreprises et les ménages sont moins aidés qu’auparavant.
Relance :
L’Etat chercher à relancer la croissance pour relancer l’économie, l’emploi et la consommation. Cela coûte très cher à l’État et si les ménages préfèrent économiser que dépenser, l’État sera très endetté, peut-être même jusqu’à subir une dette insoutenable qui l’empêchera de rembourser ses créanciers.
La crise grecque
En cachant ses comptes devant la Commission européenne grâce à l’aide de la Goldman Sachs, la Grèce entre dans l’UE en étant déjà très endettée. De plus, les organisations de statistiques ont fermé les yeux sur le déficit de la Grèce.
La Grèce mise énormément sur le tourisme qui est malheureusement l’un des premiers secteurs touchés par la crise. Sa mauvaise note attribuée par les agences de notation entraine une augmentation des taux d’intérêt.
La France a investi beaucoup d’argent dans des banques Grecques aujourd’hui ruinées. L’Europe a perdu en crédibilité, ce qui se fait sentir sur les taux d’intérêt accordés aux pays européens.
Énormément d’investisseurs convertissent leurs euros en dollars, provoquant une dépréciation de l’euro. D’autres retirent leurs actions dans les entreprises européennes de peur qu’elles s’écroulent. Beaucoup d’entre elles ne résistent pas au manque d’investissements et déposent le bilan.
Plusieurs plans d’aide sont mis en place. La France a prêté 42 milliards d’euros à la Grèce pour l’aider (1400€ par Français actif). Le Fonds européen de stabilité financière (FESF) est un fonds commun de créance qui a servi à aider la Grèce.
En contrepartie de ce plan d’aide, le parlement grec doit appliquer des réformes dans au moins 4 secteurs parmi :
- L’indépendance des organismes statistiques
- Une meilleure application des taxes et impôts dans le pays
- Les retraites
- Le respect des limites de dépenses imposées par l’Europe
- Des réformes fiscales : prélever plus, et plus justement
- Privatiser des secteurs que possède l’État
Le peuple subit l’austérité qui lui est imposée contre sa volonté.
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Sommaire
Introduction
Chapitre 1 – Comprendre d’où vient la crise de 2008
- Les origines de la crise
- Le beau temps avant la tempête
- La crise vécue par Pascal, notre héros du quotidien
Chapitre 2 – Prédire l’économie, ça n’a pas l’air si difficile !
- Les théories les plus connues
- Pourquoi l’économie reste-t-elle imprévisible ?
- La géopolitique joue un rôle majeur
Chapitre 3 – Comprendre la Bourse et les marchés
- D’où vient la Bourse ?
- Pascal crée son entreprise
- La Bourse, un grand marché très connecté
- Les différents investissements en Bourse
- Les agences de notation
- Le jeudi 24 octobre 1929 ou « jeudi noir »
- La peur des marchés incontrôlés
- Comment les marchés influencent-ils un pays ?
- L’affaire Bernard Madoff : quand les marchés profitent aux escroqueries
Chapitre 4 – Les banques centrales
- Qu’est-ce qu’une banque centrale ?
- Comment les banques centrales injectent-elles ou retirent-elles de la masse monétaire ?
- Les banques centrales dans la crise financière
- Les crises inflationnistes
- Les crises déflationnistes
Chapitre 5 – La crise japonaise
- Le Japon avant la crise
- Le yen fort et le début des problèmes
- Qu’ont fait les autorités japonaises ?
- Le Quantitative easing (assouplissement quantitatif) : la BCE essaie à son tour
Chapitre 6 – Pourquoi les États sont-ils endettés ?
- Les recettes de l’État français
- Le PIB, c’est quoi ?
Chapitre 7 – Austérité et relance, un couple explosif
- L’austérité, qu’est-ce que c’est ?
- L’austérité en Europe
- La relance, qu’est-ce que c’est ?
- Pourquoi la France ne relance-t-elle pas l’économie en investissant ?
Chapitre 8 – La crise grecque
- L’origine de la dette grecque
- Un problème mis au jour avec la crise
- Pourquoi sommes-nous tous concernés par la crise grecque ?
- Les plans d’aide pour la Grèce 143
- Comment la crise financière est-elle devenue une crise sociale ?
Conclusion
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